Current progress and boundaries
Renewable power forecasts already support dispatch, but clouds, local weather, and equipment failures can cause short-term errors.
Why it remains difficult
Site data may be incomplete or delayed, and forecast errors can propagate through the dispatch chain. Data standards and permissions also differ across operators.
Paths worth exploring
Provide probabilistic ranges instead of a single number and trace forecast errors back to their causes. Initially give dispatchers explainable recommendations without directly triggering grid controls.
How to evaluate success
Use metrics such as errors by time period, interval coverage, ramp-event warning rates, and dispatch reserve costs, and validate separately under different weather conditions.