Current progress and boundaries
Project management software can aggregate progress, and predictive models are being explored for cost and delay analysis, but on-site data is often incomplete and updated late.
Why it remains difficult
Contractors use inconsistent reporting conventions, and delay causes are often interrelated. If forecasts lack evidence, project members may distrust them or change their reporting to meet metrics.
Paths worth exploring
Start with one trackable risk type, standardize event definitions, and record the basis for forecasts. Have project managers confirm risks and report what happens afterward.
How to evaluate success
Measure warning lead time, resources wasted on false alarms, on-time completion of key milestones, and transferability across projects, while auditing data quality.